Global geothermal "leader"

As a rising star in the energy family, geothermal has started to run in China. After the promulgation of the 13th Five Year Plan for National Geothermal Energy, the development goals, key projects and implementation paths of geothermal energy have become increasingly clear. China is a large country of energy consumption and geothermal utilization, and the direct utilization of geothermal has been in the forefront of the world for a long time. At present, China is in an important stage of energy structure transformation. Planning the future development of geothermal industry will not only have an important impact on China's economic and social development, but also have an important significance for the world's geothermal development.

The main way of geothermal utilization is direct utilization and power generation. IEA has made a systematic prediction and outlook on the future utilization structure of geothermal energy. In terms of direct geothermal utilization, IEA predicts that the installed capacity of direct geothermal utilization in the world will be 500GWT and 650GWT by 2035 and 2040. At present, the installed capacity utilization coefficient of major countries directly using geothermal energy, such as China and the United States, is mostly between 0.2-0.3, and in some countries it reaches 0.5, that is, the annual actual utilization of major countries directly using geothermal energy is equivalent to 20-30% of their full capacity operation, and in some countries it reaches 50%. One of the main forms of direct utilization is geothermal heating or cooling, which is greatly affected by seasonal factors, so the utilization coefficient is not particularly high. Taking into account the strengthening of the green and low-carbon development trend in the future and the follow-up of the development measures of relevant countries, it is expected that the direct utilization coefficient of geothermal energy will increase in varying degrees in the future. According to the coefficient of 0.5 and the predicted installed capacity, by 2035 and 2040, the global geothermal direct utilization scale is expected to be 270 million tons and 350 million tons of standard coal.

There are large variables about power generation. The IEA forecasts the global future geothermal power generation in three scenarios: existing policies, new policies and sustainable development. Under the current policy scenario, the installed capacity of global geothermal power generation will reach 33 and 41GW respectively by 2035 and 2040, and the power generation will reach 240 and 280TWH, equivalent to 70 and 90 million tons of standard coal; Under the new policy scenario, the installed capacity will reach 40 and 51GW respectively by 2035 and 2040, and the power generation will reach 270 and 350TWH respectively, equivalent to 80 and 100 million tons of standard coal; Under the sustainable development scenario, the installed capacity will reach 60GW and 82GW respectively by 2035 and 2040, and the power generation will reach 430 and 560TWH respectively, equivalent to 130 and 170 million tons of standard coal. According to the estimation of IEA's highest scenario, by 2040, the utilization scale of global geothermal, including direct utilization and power generation, is equivalent to 520 million tons of standard coal.

The 13th Five Year Plan for the Development and Utilization of Geothermal Energy sets out China's geothermal development goal in 2020. By 2020, 70 million tons of standard coal will be used annually for geothermal energy and 40 million tons of standard coal will be used annually for geothermal heating. See the geothermal energy utilization plan issued by the Geological Survey of China in 2016 for the medium and long-term geothermal development goals after 2020, which proposes that geothermal energy will account for 3% of primary energy consumption by 2030. The National Energy Production and Consumption Revolutionary Strategy (2016-2030) puts forward the development goal of total energy consumption control. The specific plan is to control the total energy consumption within 5 billion tons of standard coal by 2020 and 6 billion tons of standard coal by 2030. According to the calculation of 6 billion tons of standard coal and 3%, the medium and long-term geothermal utilization plan means that the scale of geothermal utilization in China will be close to 200 million tons by 2030. Comparing this goal with the global geothermal utilization goal around 2035, China's geothermal utilization will account for 50% of the global geothermal utilization.

In fact, China has been leading the world in geothermal power generation, and the scale of direct utilization is almost twice as large as that of the United States, which is closely followed. However, geothermal power generation has been stagnant for a long time. As far as the development trend in the near and medium term is concerned, the application of geothermal energy in the field of heating and cooling will continue to grow steadily. By the end of 2015, China's geothermal heating area is close to 500 million square meters, and the newly issued geothermal development plan has clearly defined the development goal of increasing the heating area to 1.6 billion square meters by 2020. According to the current growth trend, it is estimated that the area of geothermal heating and cooling in China will be close to 5 billion square meters by 2035. The current level of urbanization in China is about 50%, and there is still much room for development in the future. In particular, with the southward movement of the geothermal heating boundary, geothermal heating and cooling have stable market growth potential. Although the medium and deep geothermal heating is limited by resource distribution, the shallow geothermal has broken through this limitation. The Notice on Accelerating the Development and Utilization of Shallow Geothermal Energy to Promote the Replacement of Coal fired in Northern Heating Areas requires relevant departments at all levels in the relevant regions to take the utilization of shallow geothermal energy as an important part of the work of coal fired replacement, promoting new urbanization, improving urban and rural energy infrastructure, and promoting the equalization of public services such as heating (cooling), etc. With regard to high temperature geothermal power generation, relevant domestic institutions and enterprises have been working hard to promote the steady growth of installed power generation capacity, which will reach 530MW by 2020 according to the plan. At present, the main problem is that the grid price policy of geothermal power generation is not clear, and the management of mining rights in some areas has not been straightened out. The relevant departments have realized this and are taking effective measures to coordinate and manage it. In terms of medium and low temperature power generation, breakthroughs have been made in key equipment and technologies produced by some domestic enterprises. In addition, the exploration of dry hot rocks has also made important progress in Qinghai, Hainan and other places. According to the estimation of experts in the industry, dry hot rock power generation will enter the stage of commercial operation around 2035, when geothermal power generation will reach a new level.

China's energy transformation has its own characteristics. Renewable energy must take multiple measures to achieve the desired goals. Under this situation, the development of geothermal ushers in a rare development opportunity, with huge development space. According to the survey and evaluation results of China Geological Survey of the Ministry of Land and Resources in 2015, the annual exploitable resources of shallow geothermal energy in 336 cities above prefecture level in China are equivalent to 700 million tons of standard coal; The national hydrothermal geothermal resources amount to 1.25 trillion tons of standard coal, and the annual recoverable resources amount to 1.9 billion tons of standard coal; The amount of dry hot rock resources buried at 3000-10000 meters is equivalent to 856 trillion tons of standard coal. Compared with other renewable energy sources, geothermal energy has the advantages of being clean, environment-friendly, sustainable and stable in supply, and free from seasonal changes. However, its disadvantages are low energy density, high initial investment, and long payback period, which affect the enthusiasm of investors. The experience of countries with developed geothermal industry has proved that as long as the policy guidance is clear and the measures are effective, a scientific development model conducive to the development of geothermal industry can be formed. In recent years, the central and local governments have issued a series of policies to support the development of geothermal energy. The development of the geothermal industry in China is on the right track, especially the introduction of the five-year plan for geothermal energy development has more milestone significance. With the development of this situation, the scale of geothermal utilization in China will continue to grow, and the structure will become increasingly reasonable. Therefore, China will become a veritable geothermal power and lead the world in geothermal.